Wk4 As a project management professional, it is important for you to be able to review numbers and report on what they are saying. It is also important for

As a project management professional, it is important for you to be able to review numbers and report on what they are saying. It is also important for you to be able to use software that helps you keep timelines and keep the project running on time and smoothly. This assignment will continue to help prepare you for your responsibilities.

You are a project manager and you successfully completed the project from Weeks 2 and 3. A program manager from another division is aware of your familiarity and success with the Technology Refresh Project. He has asked you to perform a schedule risk analysis on a different Technology Refresh Project, i.e., the Technology Refresh (Version B) Project, which is based on your project from Weeks 2 and 3. In fact, the project tasks are the same, only the durations and the critical paths are different (note: your project files from Week 2 and Week 3 are not relevant to this assignment).

Perform a schedule risk analysis for the Technology Refresh (Version B) Project by completing the following:

Open “Topic 4 Project Assessment Problems TEMPLATE.” Take note of the project information, including the expected durations and the tasks that are on the critical path.

Calculate the following;

  1. The expected project finish time.
  2. The variances for the applicable tasks.
  3. The total critical path variance.
  4. The total critical path standard deviation.

The customer has seen the Technology Refresh (Version B) project schedule and the expected project finish time. However, the customer is concerned about the schedule risk of the project. Therefore, he wishes to know the following (i.e., determine the following):

  1. The probability of finishing the project in 287 days.
  2. The probability of finishing the project in 273 days.

Hints:

  1. If you wish to solve part 3 using the Z-value approach, refer to the Standard Normal Cumulative Probability Table at math.bgu.ac, (2014).
  2. Note also that Microsoft Excel’s NORM.DIST function can be used to determine the probabilities in part 3, which does require use of the Z-Table.

Project Risk

MGT 640 Topic 4, Project Risk Assessment Problems SOLUTION
IDTaskOptimistic Duration (days)Most Likely Duration (days)Pessimistic Duration (days)PERT Expected Duration (days)Critical PathVariance
1TECHNOLOGY REFRESH (VERSION B) PROJECT
2Initiating
3Meet with key stakeholders23124
4Finalize statement of work2101510
5Secure project team leads2242
6Finalize stakeholder register210139
7Develop project charter25177
8Finalize project charter2484
9Planning
10Scope Planning
11Requirements
12Develop/finalize functional requirements10182818
13Develop/finalize hardware requirements12161816
14Develop/finalize software requirements10163017
15Develop/finalize requirements traceability matrix11142816
16Finalize project deliverables2232
17Develop scope statement49108
18Finalize/Update WBS2353
19Schedule (Time) and Cost Planning
20Finalize hardware/software costs2454
21Update activities and duration estimates6121411
22Human Resource Planning
23Finalize resource requirements6101410
24Finalize project costs4111911
25Identify training requirements2454
26Complete training activities6121411
27Quality Planning
28Determine impacted quality processes2343
29Finalize quality management plan2101810
30Risk Planning
31Update project risks36127
32Draft risk register2384
33Finalize risk management plan2474
34Finalize Project Plan
35Finalize communications management plan2343
36Finalize procurement management plan26147
37Finalize stakeholder management plan2253
38Finalize project schedule/cost baseline2131912
39Finalize project plan25166
40Obtain approval for project plan2474
41Executing
42Hardware
43Procure hardware from suppliers10243223
44Software
45Obtain software OS licenses6112012
46Obtain software application licenses68179
47Pilot Testing
48Setup test area1222
49Load software onto pilot machines4686
50Validate functionality3686
51Deployment
52Configure production hardware10253324
53Deploy production hardware11192318
54Load software to deployed hardware12171917
55Testing
56Validate startup on deployed hardware491810
57Perform OS testing48179
58Perform application testing4192818
59Obtain formal sign-off from users6172416
60Monitoring and Controlling
61Formal Customer Review 1
62Hold formal customer review after project plan approval1343
63Update project plan4102011
64Formal Customer Review 2
65Obtain updates regarding key deliverables from project team5182217
66Hold formal customer review after pilot testing57117
67Update project plan48159
68Closing
69External
70Finalize procurement with suppliers5182417
71Customer Approval
72Hold final customer review1222
73Prepare/submit final customer report36106
74Audit against contractual deliverables3585
75Obtain final customer approval2343
76Internal
77Hold lessons learned meeting1111
78Update final internal report46127
79Hold project team celebration event1121
Expected Project Finish Time:Total Critical Path Variance:days
days
Total Critical Path Standard Deviation:days
Probability of finishing the project in287days is
or
%
Probability of finishing the project in273days is
or
%

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